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Minnesota Twins top 40 prospects for 2023, led by Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis

This is a dramatically different Twins farm system than it was 12 months ago, as 11 of last year’s top 25 prospects — including five of the top 10 — are either no longer prospect eligible or no longer in the organization.

Jhoan Duran, Jose Miranda, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder and Gilberto Celestino all shed their prospect status by graduating to the majors. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Chase Petty, Steve Hajjar and Cade Povich each exited in trades. It’s the most year-over-year, system-wide departures I’ve seen in 17 years of writing about and ranking Twins prospects.

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What remains is an average-ish system led by a top-50 global prospect drafted just six months ago, plus lots of high-minors prospects knocking on the door to the majors and several of the highest-upside players returning from injuries. It’s reasonable to expect more than half of the Twins’ top 10 prospects to see MLB action in 2023, joining 2022 grads Duran, Miranda and Ryan as core pieces.

With that, here’s the 2023 edition of my rankings.

1. Brooks Lee, SS

Born: 2001 | Bats: Switch | Acquired: 2022 draft

Brooks Lee was a potential first-round pick coming out of high school in 2019, but he informed teams that he’d be playing college ball for his father, longtime Cal Poly coach Larry Lee. After redshirting for 2020 with a leg injury, he was the back-to-back Big West conference player of the year, hitting .351/.426/.647 in 115 total games to emerge as a consensus top-five prospect in the 2022 class.

When the domino effect of the Rangers unexpectedly choosing Kumar Rocker at No. 3 led to Lee being available at No. 8, the Twins jumped at the chance to snag the switch-hitting shortstop many considered the country’s premier college bat. They signed him to an above-slot $5.675 million bonus and pushed him so aggressively that Lee was playing in the Double-A playoffs two months later.

It was a grand debut for Lee, who lived up to the pre-draft hype as a polished, disciplined line-drive machine by batting .303/.389/.451 with 10 extra-base hits and 16 walks in 31 games. He showed the bat-to-ball skills the Twins expected and the power potential they hoped to see, and he also fit the coach’s son mold by impressing with his work ethic and attention to detail.

Lee has a sturdy 6-foot-2 frame and modest speed, leading to mixed opinions about his ability to stick at shortstop, but if a move is eventually needed he has the tools to thrive at third base or second base. He has a chance to be the total package offensively, with power, patience and contact from both sides. And if the Twins stay aggressive, reaching the majors in 2023, at age 22, is possible.

That’s the second long ball in three games for top @Twins prospect Brooks Lee!

The eighth overall pick of the 2022 Draft now has four homers for the @CRKernels. pic.twitter.com/WN7Gsg7izx

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 4, 2022

2. Royce Lewis, SS

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2017 draft

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Royce Lewis went 28 months without any game action due to the pandemic in 2020 and a torn ACL in 2021. He returned in 2022 and looked better than ever at the plate while facing Triple-A pitching for the first time. He made his MLB debut, first subbing for Carlos Correa at shortstop and then changing positions to play alongside Correa in the Twins’ lineup. And then he re-tore his ACL.

It’s impossible to know how back-to-back major knee injuries will affect Lewis’ elite speed or how being robbed of such crucial development time will affect his overall outlook. What we do know is the first comeback was wildly impressive, as Lewis hit .313/.405/.534 in 34 games for the Saints and .300/.317/.550 in 12 games for the Twins, looking every bit like the player drafted No. 1 in 2017.

In those 46 total games, Lewis went 12-for-14 stealing bases while rating in the 80th percentile for sprint speed, played a solid shortstop and smacked 24 extra-base hits, including seven homers and his first MLB grand slam. He already did it once. And if something resembling that version of Lewis remains intact after another 12 months of rehab, the Twins will have a 24-year-old building block.

Lewis has seemingly been a top prospect forever and he’s already experienced an entire career’s worth of adversity, but he was the Twins’ youngest position player last season and he’s the same age or younger than half of the other prospects on this list. In other words, he still has plenty of time. And he certainly has plenty of talent. Answering any other questions will have to wait until midseason.

What a moment for your 1st home run, Royce! #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/sy10JQ3YSG

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 14, 2022

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF

Born: 2003 | Bats: Left | Acquired: 2019 IFA

If not for a knee injury in June that ended his season after 47 games, Emmanuel Rodriguez might be sitting atop this list. Making his full-season debut at 19, he hit .272/.493/.553 with eye-popping power and plate discipline for Low-A Fort Myers, blowing away the pitcher-friendly league average by 357 points of OPS. Now fully recovered from surgery, he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

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Rodriguez was one of the top prospects in the 2019 international class when he signed with the Twins for $2.5 million as a 16-year-old, but no one anticipated him being this good this soon. In particular, his ultra-patient approach, with 80 walks in 84 career games, is almost unheard of for any teenager, and especially a center fielder with big power, solid bat-to-ball skills and above-average speed.

Rodriguez is a sturdy 5-foot-10 and moving out of center field eventually was a strong possibility even before the knee injury, but he’s got the arm strength and range to thrive in a corner spot. And his middle-of-the-order hitting potential is obvious, as Rodriguez has launched 19 homers and 33 total extra-base hits in just 262 at-bats and rarely expands the zone in search of non-strikes to hit.

Expectations should be held somewhat in check simply because Rodriguez is a 19-year-old with a limited track record and coming off knee surgery, but he has as much upside as anyone in the Twins system and could be a consensus top-25 global prospect this time next year. Or as vice president of hitting development Alex Hassan says of Rodriguez: “He’s a physical beast.”

18-year-old #MNTwins CF prospect Emmanuel Rodríguez posted an .870 OPS and 124 wRC+ in his pro debut🔥 pic.twitter.com/zmgrqXpWvy

— Locked On Twins (@LockedOnTwins) February 7, 2022

4. Matt Wallner, RF

Born: 1997 | Bats: Left | Acquired: 2019 draft

Matt Wallner was Minnesota’s high school player of the year at Forest Lake in 2016, as a pitcher. Drafted by the Twins in the 32nd round, he opted instead to play college ball at North Dakota, only for the program to be disbanded. From there he pivoted to the only other school offering a scholarship, Southern Miss, where Wallner moved to the outfield and broke Brian Dozier’s hitting records.

Drafted again by Minnesota in 2019, this time in the supplemental first round and as a right fielder, Wallner hit well in the low minors and then broke out in 2022, winning Twins minor league player of the year and making his big-league debut in September. He hit .277/.412/.542 over 128 games between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, and held his own in 18 games for the Twins.

Wallner is a 6-foot-5 left-handed hitter with elite, top-of-the-scale raw power, and last season his improved plate discipline led to 97 walks in the minors. His range in the outfield is limited, but Wallner is much faster than his size suggests once he’s underway and he’s got a cannon for an arm left over from his pitching days. He’s a prototypical slugging right fielder, with one red flag: strikeouts.

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Wallner has whiffed in 31 percent of his career plate appearances, including 195 strikeouts in 146 total games last season, and without substantially more contact it’s difficult to see him hitting above .250 consistently. Even a batting average in the low .200s, combined with 30 homers and lots of walks, could make Wallner an impact bat, but expect plenty of swings and misses with the 450-foot blasts.

Matt Wallner's first career hit is a homer vs. former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. And the Minnesota native's family is in the crowd, going nuts.

Such a great moment. pic.twitter.com/mmGDxfrXAx

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 17, 2022

5. Austin Martin, SS/CF

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2021 trade

Austin Martin’s stock has dropped considerably since the Twins acquired him from the Blue Jays in 2021 as the prospect headliner in the José Berríos trade. Last season, swing changes intended to produce more power had the opposite effect, as Martin hit just .249 with one homer through July 1, when he tore a ligament in his left wrist and missed six weeks.

In just 12 months, the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft had gone from a consensus top-50 global prospect to being absent from most top-100 lists, and he was still stuck repeating Double A. He returned in mid-August, reverted to some of his old mechanics and hit .268/.405/.423 in September. Assigned to the Arizona Fall League, he hit .374 in 21 games to head into the offseason on a high note.

Martin’s game has never been about power, making a name for himself on bat-to-ball skills, plate discipline and speed, so it’s fair to wonder if tinkering in the hopes of unlocking more power has hindered his development. Becoming more than a singles hitter is needed if Martin is going to be a star, but can he improve that weakness without losing the strengths that could make him a good regular?

He’s a grinder with a .391 on-base percentage and 49 steals through 185 games, reaching via walks or hit by pitches (157) almost as often as hits (172). Despite playing mostly shortstop last year, few evaluators see Martin sticking there, with center field, second base or a super-utility role as better fits. He’s likely to reach the majors in 2023, with or without more power. Don’t write him off just yet.

It's gone! @austin_martin99 hits his first home run of the season to shrink the deficit!

Wichita still trails Tulsa 5-2. #WindSurge pic.twitter.com/ZlDsSPj6Iu

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) May 8, 2022

6. Edouard Julien, 2B

Born: 1999 | Bats: Left | Acquired: 2019 draft

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It had been more than two decades since a Twins prospect walked 100 times in a season until Edouard Julien drew 110 walks in 2021, and nearly did it again last season with 98 free passes in 113 games. Julien was a patient hitter at Auburn, but he’s taken his plate discipline to another level since being an 18th-round pick in 2019, getting on base at a jaw-dropping .437 clip in 225 games.

Making life miserable for low-minors arms is one thing, but Julien did the same to Double-A pitchers last season, hitting .300/.441/.490 with 17 homers and 98 walks. And then he went absolutely bonkers in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .400/.563/.686 in 21 games. Overall in 2022, he reached base 278 times in 134 games, hitting .315 with 22 homers, 25 steals and a .460 on-base percentage.

Extreme walk rates in the minors can sometimes be the sign of an overly passive hitter, which tends to get exposed in the majors, but Julien has shown an ability to punish pitchers for attacking him in the zone. Like most lefty hitters, he’s far weaker versus lefties, and he could require a slide down the defensive spectrum from second base, but Julien has the skills to be an on-base machine.

IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE! @edouardjulien7 walks off the Surge in the bottom of the 9th!!! pic.twitter.com/pVc0nyOkjA

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) July 17, 2022

7. Louie Varland, SP

Born: 1997 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

Louie Varland used the 2020 downtime to work with coaches on his mechanics and velocity, reemerging in 2021 with a lower arm slot and an extra 3-4 mph on his fastball compared to his days at Concordia in St. Paul. He sliced up the low minors in 2021 and the high minors in 2022, was named Twins minor league pitcher of the year both seasons, and made his MLB debut in September.

Varland’s first taste of the big leagues was a success, as he worked quickly, threw strikes and completed five innings in all five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and 21-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 innings. He joined the Twins’ rotation after just four starts at Triple-A St. Paul, where he put up a 1.69 ERA and 27-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings.

His four-pitch mix features a mid-90s fastball and high-80s cutter, and Varland has worked to add lateral movement to his slider and refine his changeup in the hopes of using it to neutralize lefty sluggers. His off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball and could make him susceptible to homers without stronger command, but Varland profiles as a mid-rotation starter with some additional upside.

Louie Varland gets Aaron Judge swinging for his first career strikeout, with his family cheering at Yankee Stadium. pic.twitter.com/HMzf9MSu93

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 7, 2022

8. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP

Born: 2000 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2021 trade

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Martin was the centerpiece prospect in the 2021 trade with Toronto for Berríos, but Simeon Woods Richardson beat him to the majors, debuting five days after his 22nd birthday. And the path there wasn’t a smooth one. Woods Richardson has been traded twice, was pushed to the high minors far too aggressively by the Blue Jays and spent part of 2021 not pitching while in Japan for the Olympics.

Last year was Woods Richardson’s first full season spent with one organization since he was the Mets’ second-round pick in 2018 out of high school. He made the most of it with a 2.77 ERA and 115-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, holding opponents to a .199 batting average and just six homers.

SWR isn’t overpowering, throwing his fastball in the low 90s, but he has a full complement of three good off-speed pitches led by a low-80s changeup. He was MLB’s second-youngest pitcher last year, so more Triple-A time is coming, but Woods Richardson is close to major-league ready. He looks like a mid-rotation starter, although some evaluators have always liked him even more as a reliever.

9. Marco Raya, SP

Born: 2002 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2020 draft

Marco Raya’s pro debut was worth the wait. Picked in the fourth round of the 2020 draft out of a Texas high school, Raya finally took the mound nearly two years later and immediately showed why Twins officials had spent that entire time hyping him up. Assigned to Low-A Fort Myers, where he was the staff’s youngest pitcher by two years, Raya posted a 3.05 ERA in 65 innings.

Facing hitters older than him 83 percent of the time, Raya struck out 10.5 per nine innings and held opponents to a .199 batting average. Shoulder soreness kept Raya from a 2021 debut and his small frame also raises durability red flags, but there’s no questioning his stuff. His mid-90s fastball is merely the opening act for three good off-speed pitches, including a great slider.

Raya was among the youngest pitchers in the 2020 draft class and far from a top prospect, but the Twins talked up his advanced feel for pitching and ability to consistently spin quality breaking balls. Those traits remain and he has since added several miles per hour to his fastball, going from a mid-rotation profile to a potential front-line starter. And he’s still just 20.

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10. Yasser Mercedes, CF

Born: 2004 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2022 IFA

Yasser Mercedes was the Twins’ top signing in the 2022 international prospect class, agreeing to a $1.7 million bonus as a 17-year-old last January. Billed as a raw, toolsy center fielder whose skills might take a few years to develop into an impact player, he thrived immediately in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League, batting .355 with 20 extra-base hits and 30 steals in 41 games.

Mercedes out-hit the league average by 266 points of OPS and his power was especially impressive in a league that slugged just .352. Twins officials were also pleasantly surprised by his strike-zone control, which is always tough to predict in teenagers facing pro competition for the first time. He drew walks, struck out less often than the league average and showed a discerning eye at the plate.

He’s a quality defensive center fielder with plenty of range now, but Mercedes also has enough room to grow into his 6-foot-2 frame that an eventual move to a corner spot could be natural. Rookie-ball skepticism is always appropriate, but Mercedes’ pro debut put his elite bat speed and power-athleticism combination on full display. He’s one of the highest-upside prospects in the Twins’ system.

11. David Festa, SP

Born: 2000 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2021 draft

David Festa had a solid college career at Seton Hall, but he worked in the low 90s, walked 4.2 per nine innings and didn’t miss a ton of bats, which is how the wiry 6-foot-6 right-hander fell to the Twins with the 399th pick in 2021. From there, Twins coaches went to work tweaking his mechanics to add velocity, and by the beginning of 2022 he was throwing in the mid-90s consistently.

He was too good for Low-A hitters, posting a 1.50 ERA in five starts, and the Twins quickly promoted Festa to High-A Cedar Rapids, where his 2.71 ERA was third-best in the Midwest League among pitchers with at least 70 innings. Combined between the two levels, Festa struck out 108 and walked 34 in 104 innings, allowing just six homers on the way to a 2.43 ERA.

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Pitchers aren’t usually able to improve their velocity and control simultaneously, but Festa did it while continuing to develop his quality slider and changeup. It’s now a pitch mix capable of missing bats and inducing grounders, giving Festa a mid-rotation profile. If his first taste of the high minors goes well, Festa could reach the majors in 2023, his age-23 season.

12. Connor Prielipp, SP

Born: 2001 | Throws: Left | Acquired: 2022 draft

Connor Prielipp was a consensus top-10 prospect in the 2022 draft class before blowing out his elbow, which caused the Alabama southpaw to fall to the Twins in the second round. He has yet to throw a pro pitch and logged just 28 college innings, but Prielipp could have the most upside of any pitching prospect in the Twins’ system if he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, which he had in May 2021.

His pre-surgery raw stuff was elite, with a mid-90s fastball, a dominant slider and a solid changeup, giving the Tomah, Wis. native a front-of-the-rotation ceiling. Prielipp posted a 0.96 ERA in seven college starts, striking out 47 of the 103 batters he faced while issuing just seven walks and giving up only 13 hits. If healthy, it’s possible he would have been a top-five pick last July.

Prielipp will move methodically through the Twins’ system, at least initially, so 2023 is unlikely to be a full-scale breakout. He needs to get back on the mound, build up his workload and show that he’s more than just hypothetical potential. And if durability proves to be a long-term issue, Prielipp’s fastball-slider combo should be good enough to make late-inning relief a viable fallback plan.

13. Jose Rodriguez, RF

Born: 2005 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2022 IFA

Signed for $650,000 as part of the 2022 international class, Rodriguez debuted alongside Mercedes in the Dominican Summer League and smacked a league-leading 13 homers in 55 games. That’s rarefied air in a league for teenagers still growing into their power. Last season, the average DSL team hit just 25 homers and no individual prospect has topped 13 homers in the DSL since 2016.

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Rodriguez’s exit velocities may have been even more impressive than his homer total. He destroyed the ball, in an environment where that isn’t supposed to take place. And he also showed better bat-to-ball ability than anticipated right away, hitting .290 with a fair number of walks and a high but reasonable strikeout rate just a shade above the league average.

Rodriguez is a prototypical right fielder, with modest range and a strong arm, so his elite right-handed power would profile well at the position if the rest of his game develops as hoped. He won’t be 18 until June, so expectations should be held in check, but the early returns are promising and Twins officials think his slugging potential is substantial enough to be a carrying tool.

14. Jordan Balazovic, SP

Born: 1998 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2016 draft

Jordan Balazovic began 2022 as a consensus top-100 global prospect on track to reach the big leagues by midseason, but he ended the year still stuck at Triple-A St. Paul sporting a 7.39 ERA. He spent April on the injured list with a strained knee and got clobbered for four months upon returning, giving up 59 runs in 52 innings while allowing opponents to hit .369 with 17 homers and a 1.122 OPS.

It became hard to watch, as Balazovic failed to make it out of the third inning in five consecutive midseason starts, but the Twins insisted he was healthy and simply needed to work through the extreme struggles. He finally got on track for the final six weeks, posting a 3.41 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 29 innings to at least show some proof of prospect life.

Balazovic’s stock plummeted about as far as possible without a major arm injury involved, but he’s still just 24 years old and his lost 2022 season seemed to stem more from poor health and messy mechanics than diminished stuff. He’s a huge question mark heading into 2023, and top prospects who collapse like Balazovic did often don’t make it all the way back, but he still has mid-rotation upside.

15. Noah Miller, SS

Born: 2002 | Bats: Switch | Acquired: 2021 draft

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Noah Miller was one of only nine teenagers to play more than 80 games in the Florida State League, and in retrospect, the Low-A assignment may have been a little too aggressive for the 2021 supplemental first-round pick from Wisconsin. Miller hit just .212 with two homers in 108 games, slugging .279 compared to a pitcher-friendly league average of .361.

Miller batted below .230 in five of six months and failed to homer in his last 81 games, but the switch-hitter did show remarkable plate discipline for a 19-year-old by ranking second in the league with 76 walks. He also fully squashed pre-draft questions about his fielding ability by impressing evaluators at shortstop, where he stood out with sure hands and smooth actions. He can stick there.

Most young shortstop prospects end up moving elsewhere on the diamond eventually, so Miller proving that he can handle the position and control the strike zone in his full-season debut shouldn’t be brushed aside for a teenager from a cold-weather state. Now he must also show that the Twins were right about his hitting ability, which could require more patience.

16. Jovani Moran, RP

Born: 1997 | Throws: Left | Acquired: 2015 draft

Jovani Moran threw his oft-touted changeup nearly half of the time last season and big-league hitters confirmed its status as an elite pitch, hitting .101 against it while whiffing on 49.7 percent of swings. Like most changeups, it neutralizes opposite-sided batters, turning the left-hander into a strategic weapon capable of shutting down righties, who have hit .175 against him in the majors.

Paired with his 92-94 mph fastball, Moran’s changeup is a career-making pitch, but only if his control improves from 25 walks in 49 innings with the Twins. Of course, he also struck out 64 versus 34 hits, including no homers. He deserves a chance to get established in the bullpen without worrying about being demoted to the minors after a bad game. If he throws strikes, he’ll be a late-inning asset.

Jovani Moran's changeup is producing a 50.8% whiff rate. Wiffleball. pic.twitter.com/9fOJzVKx3g

— Nash Walker (@Nashwalker9) September 16, 2022

17. Ronny Henriquez, RP

Born: 2000 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2022 trade

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An afterthought as the third piece in last spring’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa-for-Mitch Garver swap, Ronny Henriquez shifted to the bullpen at Triple-A St. Paul and reached the majors two months later, showing late-inning ability in September with a mid-90s fastball and sharp slider. His changeup, used mostly versus left-handed hitters, has the potential to be a quality third pitch.

Henriquez is generously listed at 5-foot-10 and 160 pounds, but the ball jumps out of his hand and he’s generally done a solid job throwing strikes for someone pushed through the minors aggressively. He’ll be in the Twins’ bullpen mix for 2023, although it remains to be seen if they view the 22-year-old right-hander as a multi-inning option or a traditional reliever.

18. Danny De Andrade, SS

Born: 2004 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2021 IFA

One of the top prospects in the 2021 international class, Danny De Andrade signed with the Twins for $2.2 million as a 16-year-old. He spent his first two pro seasons in rookie ball, holding his own in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League by hitting .253/.337/.360 in pitcher-friendly environments. And he started to show a little power in 2022.

De Andrade played some third base last year because demand exceeds supply for rookie-ball shortstop reps, but he’s a legit shortstop with a chance to stick there long term if he doesn’t outgrow the position physically. He’s still just 18, and a long way from the majors, but De Andrade has looked like a worthwhile investment with a big-league future so far.

19. Matt Canterino, SP

Born: 1997 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

After several seasons spent dominating hitters in between elbow injuries, Matt Canterino underwent Tommy John surgery in August that’s expected to knock him out for all of 2023. Canterino has been brilliant when healthy enough to take the mound, posting a 1.48 ERA and 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s logged just 85 innings since being a 2019 second-round pick out of Rice.

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With a mid-90s fastball and three quality off-speed pitches, Canterino has the deep repertoire to succeed as a starter, but his injury history makes a transition to the bullpen likely whenever he returns. It’s easy to envision him thriving as a high-leverage reliever by focusing on his fastball, slider and changeup in shorter stints, but none of that will matter if Canterino can’t get and stay healthy.

20. Bryan Acuña, SS

Born: 2005 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2022 IFA

Bryan Acuña, the younger brother of Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., signed with the Twins for $650,000 as part of the 2022 international class. Playing last season as the system’s youngest hitter, he more than held his own in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League despite not turning 17 until August, batting .310 with a .409 on-base percentage and nine steals in 43 games.

Acuña failed to homer in his pro debut and his power will never approach that of his Silver Slugger-winning brother, but he’s already able to drive pitches into gaps and should develop some over-the-fence pop as he fills out physically. He’s a shortstop for now, but figures to slide over to second base eventually — although defensive fit is difficult for anyone to accurately project at such a young age.

21. Jaylen Nowlin, SP

Born: 2001 | Throws: Left | Acquired: 2021 draft

Jaylen Nowlin was a setup man for Chipola College in Florida when the Twins snagged him in the 19th round of the 2021 draft. He began 2022 in the Low-A Fort Myers bullpen and ended it in the High-A Cedar Rapids rotation, posting a 3.80 ERA with 111 strikeouts in 71 innings overall to lead the Twins’ system with a strikeout rate of 14.1 per nine innings.

Nowlin struck out 34 percent of batters faced as a reliever and increased that to 37 percent as a starter, as the skinny, 6-foot-1 lefty used a mid-90s fastball and a pair of breaking balls to shut down lefties (.175 AVG, .564 OPS) and righties (.238 AVG, .655 OPS). His control needs work, especially if he has any chance of remaining a starter, but the 21-year-old is a 2023 breakout candidate.

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22. Misael Urbina, CF/LF

Born: 2002 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2018 IFA

Signed by the Twins for $2.75 million as one of the top prospects in the 2018 international class, Misael Urbina had a nice rookie-ball debut that showed off his impressive tools and then spent 2020 working behind the scenes. He looked like a prime breakout candidate when games resumed in 2021, but he hit .191 at Low-A Fort Myers, where Urbina was one of the league’s youngest players.

Asked to repeat the level last season following a delayed start due to visa issues, Urbina bounced back at age 20 by hitting .246/.323/.419 in 50 games, showing a solid mix of power, patience and speed. His ceiling has been lowered, in part because sticking in center field is now less likely as he’s filled out physically, but Urbina still profiles as a potential outfield regular if he stays on track.

23. Tanner Schobel, 2B/SS

Born: 2001 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2022 draft

Tanner Schobel took over as Virginia Tech’s starting shortstop and smacked 19 homers in 59 games as a redshirt sophomore, improving his draft stock enough that the Twins picked him in the second round last July. He was unable to keep that unexpected power display going for his pro debut, slugging just .298 with one homer in 32 games, but he did draw 19 walks and swipe seven bases.

Schobel also played primarily second base, which is more likely than shortstop to be his long-term defensive home if he doesn’t wind up bouncing around the infield as a utility man. Clearly the Twins believe there’s power potential in his skinny 5-foot-10 frame, but until he shows that he can do damage against pro pitching, Schobel profiles as a backup with fielding flexibility.

24. Yunior Severino, 3B/2B

Born: 1999 | Bats: Switch | Acquired: 2017 IFA

Injuries have kept Yunior Severino from a full-on breakout and his fielding fit remains unclear, but his hitting has progressed nicely the past two seasons, and the former $2.5 million international signing now profiles as a possible regular. Severino is a switch-hitter with power from both sides, batting .278/.370/.536 with 19 homers in 83 games last season as a 22-year-old.

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Those strong numbers included slugging .497 with eight homers in 37 games after a promotion to Double-A Wichita, yet Severino wasn’t added to the 40-man roster and went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft. He’s played mostly second and third base so far, but there’s clearly skepticism about Severino avoiding a slide down the defensive spectrum, putting further pressure on his bat.

NOT GOING ANYWHERE! Yunior Severino ties the ballgame with a MISSILE in the 9th inning! pic.twitter.com/Z10TQZ5Glb

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) August 29, 2022

25. Noah Cardenas, C

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2021 draft

Noah Cardenas was a three-year starter at UCLA before going to the Twins in the eighth round of the 2021 draft. Making a full-season debut in 2022, he hit .261/.421/.413 with nine homers, 11 steals and more walks (73) than strikeouts (70) in 99 games for Low-A Fort Myers, mastering the electronic strike zone to lead the Florida State League in on-base percentage and rank third in walks.

Cardenas is a solid catch-and-throw backstop, nailing 29 percent of stolen base attempts, and he’s a good athlete for a catcher who got regular starts at first base and designated hitter to keep his bat in the mix. It’s especially tricky to project catchers because they develop less linearly than other positions, but going into his age-23 season Cardenas profiles as a future backup with some starter upside.

26. Cole Sands, SP

Born: 1997 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2018 draft

Cole Sands bounced back and forth between the Saints and the Twins all year, mostly holding his own for 31 innings in the majors as a long reliever and spot starter. Pairing his low-90s fastball with a changeup and a slow curveball, Sands missed a fair number of bats but struggled to consistently throw strikes and gave up way too much hard contact.

It was a similar story in St. Paul, where his .392 batting average on balls in play led to a bloated 5.55 ERA despite 72 strikeouts in 62 innings. Some of that can be blamed on bad luck and/or defense, but Sands has work to do on his control and off-speed pitches if he’s going to emerge as more than a back-end starter or low-leverage reliever. He’s in line for an up-and-down depth role again in 2023.

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27. Rafael Cruz, 3B/1B

Born: 2003 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2021 IFA

Last season, while Pirates top prospect Oneil Cruz was placing sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, his younger brother Rafael Cruz was just starting to make a name for himself in the low levels of the Twins’ system. He crushed the Dominican Summer League for 34 games, hitting .349/.445/.651, and finished the year with 18 games of average production in the Florida Complex League.

His phenom brother is a 6-foot-7 shortstop with 100th percentile raw power and arm strength, but Rafael Cruz is 6-foot-1 and a more typical corner infield prospect. He’s a good athlete with plenty of power potential, homering 11 times through 98 pro games. He’ll likely spend 2023 in Florida for his first full season against state-side competition as a 19-year-old.

28. Alerick Soularie, 2B/LF

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2020 draft

Injuries have limited Alerick Soularie to 125 games since the Twins picked him in the second round of the 2020 draft out of Tennessee, where he’d slugged .586 in two college campaigns. Soularie has yet to show that level of punch as a pro, but he did bounce back from a brutal start last season to hit .253/.365/.448 with 10 homers in his final 70 games at High-A Cedar Rapids.

Soularie has more right-handed power than his small frame would suggest, and he’s a good athlete with 20-steal speed and a fairly patient approach at the plate. If he can stay healthy and make a little more contact, there’s the potential for an age-23 breakout. Primarily a second baseman in 2022, Soularie has also played all three outfield spots, with left field being his most likely long-term home.

29. Brent Headrick, SP

Born: 1997 | Throws: Left | Acquired: 2019 draft

The biggest key for Brent Headrick last season was trimming his walk rate from 5.0 to 2.1 per nine innings, as the upgraded command of a low-90s fastball and cutter opened all sorts of doors for the 6-foot-6 left-hander. Headrick sliced up High-A hitters and held his own versus Double-A competition, posting a 3.32 ERA and 136-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 108 innings overall.

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That was enough for the Twins to add Headrick to the 40-man roster ahead of his 25th birthday, protecting the 2019 ninth-round pick from the Rule 5 draft and greatly increasing his odds of making his MLB debut in 2023. Deception and command have gotten Headrick this far, but to succeed as a starter in the majors his changeup needs to become a reliable weapon versus righty sluggers.

On the brink of elimination, @Twins prospect Brent Headrick stepped up for the @WindSurgeICT:
7 IP
3 H
0 R
0 BB
11 K pic.twitter.com/QzOZ4BXCQ6

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 28, 2022

30. Ben Ross, SS/2B

Born: 2001 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2022 draft

One of the best Division II players in the country, Ben Ross hit over .400 in all three seasons at Notre Dame College in Ohio and also hit above .400 playing in the Northwoods League, an upper-Midwest summer circuit for college players. He wasn’t listed among the top 500 prospects in the class by Baseball America, yet the Twins picked him in the fifth round — 144th overall — last July.

Ross made his debut at Low-A Fort Myers and certainly showed he belonged, batting .257/.371/.446 with eight extra-base hits, 13 walks and six steals in 22 games. In the span of just five weeks, Ross played every position except catcher and center field, signaling the Twins’ plans to prepare him for a potential utility role down the road. He has a chance to be a nice scouting find.

31. Sean Mooney, SP

Born: 1998 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

Sean Mooney was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery when the Twins picked him in the 12th round of the 2019 draft out of St. John’s. His minors debut was delayed until early 2021, but Mooney returned throwing much harder, bumping his high-80s fastball into the mid 90s. His slider and changeup are both quality offerings, and Mooney’s arm angle gives all of his pitches some extra life.

Mooney has been handled carefully, logging 42 innings in 2021 and 60 innings last season, but he’s racked up 153 strikeouts versus just 67 hits allowed in those 102 innings. He was a strike-thrower in college, but his post-surgery control is shaky, and along with durability issues that could make Mooney bullpen-bound despite a starter’s mix. This season will be about passing the high-minors test.

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32. Ricardo Olivar, LF/C

Born: 2001 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2019 IFA

Ricardo Olivar was a relative afterthought when the Twins signed him out of Venezuela as part of the same 2019 international prospect class as Emmanuel Rodriguez, but he’s now firmly on the prospect map after winning MVP of the rookie-level Florida Complex League. Olivar hit .349/.442/.605 in 40 games, leading the league in OPS, and earned a late-season promotion to Low A.

Rookie-ball numbers should always be viewed skeptically, so it’s worth noting Olivar was in his second go-around in the FCL and faced pitchers younger than him 60 percent of the time. Of course, 20 isn’t exactly old and the MVP is the MVP. Olivar’s bat will have to carry him, because he’s likely to end up near the bottom of the defensive spectrum, although exactly where remains to be seen.

33. Alejandro Hidalgo, SP

Born: 2003 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2022 trade

Rather than retain Gio Urshela for $9 million in his final season of arbitration eligibility, the Twins traded the third baseman to the Angels in mid-November for 19-year-old right-hander Alejandro Hidalgo. He can essentially be viewed as a lottery ticket for now, but Hidalgo’s changeup has the makings of a go-to pitch and he’s racked up 89 strikeouts through 66 pro innings.

That includes 58 strikeouts in 39 innings against Low-A batters last season, as one of eight teenagers to start 10 or more games in the California League. He’ll need to refine his control and further develop his breaking ball to continue on a starter path, but Hidalgo is a projectable young arm with a low-90s fastball and an advanced changeup, giving him big-league upside.

34. Aaron Sabato, 1B

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2020 draft

This could be a make-or-break season for Aaron Sabato, a college first baseman drafted in the 2020 first round solely for his bat. He was supposed to put up big numbers and move quickly after starring at North Carolina, but so far he’s done neither, hitting .209 with 291 strikeouts in 210 games. As a slow, right-handed hitter already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, he needs to produce.

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Sabato has shown substantial power to all fields when he connects, including 22 homers in 103 games last season, and walks prop up his on-base percentage, but a former college superstar striking out 32 percent of the time versus low-minors pitchers is a bright red flag. Sabato has to be able to make more contact and do damage against high-end velocity or his upside is capped as a mistake-crusher.

IN GRAND FASHION, AARON SABATO WALKS THE WIND SURGE OFF IN EXTRAS! 💣💥 #WindSurge pic.twitter.com/329T5yBOn4

— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) August 18, 2022

35. Cody Laweryson, SP

Born: 1999 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

Cody Laweryson tops out at 90-92 mph, and he lacks the pinpoint control or a great off-speed pitch normally required to make up for it, but at some point the numbers can’t be ignored. He has a 2.57 ERA and 247 strikeouts in 199 innings since being a 14th-round pick out of Maine in 2019, including a 1.06 ERA and 69-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 60 innings versus Double-A bats last year.

Laweryson’s delivery is all knees and elbows, and the deception helps his fastball generate whiffs from confused hitters. Most pitchers like Laweryson simply run out of stuff as they move up the ladder, so skepticism is justified, but Double-A hitters didn’t turn him back into a pumpkin. He has a chance to carve out a big-league niche as a back-end starter or multi-inning reliever.

36. Keoni Cavaco, 3B

Born: 2001 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

Keoni Cavaco has yet to hit since the Twins picked him 13th in the 2019 draft out of a California high school, and last season he transitioned from shortstop to third base to further dampen his outlook. Cavaco is still just 21 years old — three months younger than 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee — and he finished on a high note with a good September, but his overall game remains very raw.

Cavaco hit 11 homers in 99 games at Low-A Fort Myers last season, a sizable uptick in power in a pitcher-friendly environment, but it came attached to an ugly 138-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a reputation for chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Despite hitting just .224/.276/.346 as a pro, he’ll need to be pushed beyond Fort Myers for the first time in 2023.

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37. Travis Adams, SP

Born: 2000 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2021 draft

Drafted in the 2021 sixth round after three years in Sacramento State’s starting rotation, Travis Adams made his full-season pro debut in 2022 and pitched well across two Single-A levels at age 22. He made 22 total starts with a 3.93 ERA, striking out 108 and walking 26 in 101 innings. Given his initial pro results and college experience, Adams should be ready for high-minors competition.

Adams leaned mostly on a low-90s fastball in college and he’s added velocity to his go-to pitch since being drafted. His changeup is a quality second pitch, and the 6-foot-1 right-hander has also shown the makings of a good slider now that he’s able to throw it in the high 80s consistently. Adams is on a back-end starter path, but he might end up in the bullpen, where he could move more quickly.

38. Anthony Prato, LF/2B

Born: 1998 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2019 draft

Anthony Prato has been a high-contact, low-power on-base machine since his college days at Connecticut, which got him drafted in the seventh round by the Twins in 2019. He finally added some power last season, homering more times (10) than he previously totaled (8) in 272 college and pro games. Prato, with the ability to drive the ball, is now a much more intriguing prospect.

Adding power predictably led to more strikeouts, but Prato still managed plenty of contact while batting .285/.383/.444 with 48 extra-base hits, 22 steals and 67 walks in 132 games between High-A and Double-A. He played left field, third base and second base last season, and was a full-time shortstop in college, so the 24-year-old has a path to a utility role in the majors.

39. Jair Camargo, C

Born: 1999 | Bats: Right | Acquired: 2020 trade

Acquired from the Dodgers in 2020 as a throw-in to the Brusdar Graterol-for-Kenta Maeda trade, catcher Jair Camargo has since emerged as a legit prospect by adding substantial power to his high-end defensive skills. He still swings at everything, which caps his upside, but Camargo slugged .483 with 18 homers in 77 games last season, including 12 in 46 games for Double-A Wichita.

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Camargo is the best defensive catcher in the organization, combining a strong arm and great receiving skills, so anything he can bring to the table offensively is likely enough to give him a big-league future of some kind. He’s thrown out 32 percent of steal attempts for his career, including 36 percent last season, and his power alone could be enough to make him a backup-caliber hitter at worst.

40. Steven Cruz, RP

Born: 1999 | Throws: Right | Acquired: 2017 IFA

Steven Cruz is a 6-foot-7 right-hander with a triple-digit fastball, a sharp slider and little idea where either pitch is going most of the time, which qualifies him as an intriguing reliever prospect. He walked 68 batters and plunked nine more in 106 innings the past two years, and that actually represents improved control compared to his previous three seasons.

But there are also times when Cruz is able to simply overwhelm hitters with his raw stuff. He posted a 3.26 ERA with zero homers and 39 strikeouts in his final 30 innings at Double-A Wichita last year, and in 2021 he held Single-A hitters to a .189 batting average in 50 innings overall. It won’t work unless Cruz throws more strikes, but if he throws more strikes it could really work.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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